Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
Identifieur interne : 000338 ( France/Analysis ); précédent : 000337; suivant : 000339Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
Auteurs : Neil M. Ferguson [Royaume-Uni] ; Derek A. T. Cummings [États-Unis] ; Simon Cauchemez [France] ; Christophe Fraser [Royaume-Uni] ; Steven Riley [Hong Kong] ; Aronrag Meeyai [Royaume-Uni] ; Sopon Iamsirithaworn [Thaïlande] ; Donald S. Burke [États-Unis]Source :
- Nature [ 0028-0836 ] ; 2005-09-08.
Abstract
Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses are now endemic in avian populations in Southeast Asia, and human cases continue to accumulate. Although currently incapable of sustained human-to-human transmission, H5N1 represents a serious pandemic threat owing to the risk of a mutation or reassortment generating a virus with increased transmissibility. Identifying public health interventions that might be able to halt a pandemic in its earliest stages is therefore a priority. Here we use a simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs as a containment strategy. Other interventions aimed at reducing population contact rates are also examined as reinforcements to an antiviral-based containment policy. We show that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8. We predict that a stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs should be sufficient for elimination. Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed.
Url:
DOI: 10.1038/nature04017
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Istex, to step Corpus: 001F63
- to stream Istex, to step Curation: 001F63
- to stream Istex, to step Checkpoint: 001935
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 004E02
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 004A74
- to stream Main, to step Exploration: 004A74
- to stream France, to step Extraction: 000338
Links to Exploration step
ISTEX:5A748F4ACA42DF3AF52C5A05E64F55205BD3A42BLe document en format XML
<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia</title><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M." last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cummings, Derek A T" sort="Cummings, Derek A T" uniqKey="Cummings D" first="Derek A. T." last="Cummings">Derek A. T. Cummings</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, Christophe" sort="Fraser, Christophe" uniqKey="Fraser C" first="Christophe" last="Fraser">Christophe Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Meeyai, Aronrag" sort="Meeyai, Aronrag" uniqKey="Meeyai A" first="Aronrag" last="Meeyai">Aronrag Meeyai</name></author><author><name sortKey="Iamsirithaworn, Sopon" sort="Iamsirithaworn, Sopon" uniqKey="Iamsirithaworn S" first="Sopon" last="Iamsirithaworn">Sopon Iamsirithaworn</name></author><author><name sortKey="Burke, Donald S" sort="Burke, Donald S" uniqKey="Burke D" first="Donald S." last="Burke">Donald S. Burke</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:5A748F4ACA42DF3AF52C5A05E64F55205BD3A42B</idno><date when="2005" year="2005">2005</date><idno type="doi">10.1038/nature04017</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/GT4-Z17TVLJ3-9/fulltext.pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">001F63</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">001F63</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Curation">001F63</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Checkpoint">001935</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Checkpoint">001935</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0028-0836:2005:Ferguson N:strategies:for:containing</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">004E02</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">004A74</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">004A74</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/France/Extraction">000338</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia</title><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M." last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>London W2 1PG</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>The Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Imperial College London, 53 Princes Gate, London, SW7 2PG</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>SW7 2PG</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country wicri:rule="url">Royaume-Uni</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cummings, Derek A T" sort="Cummings, Derek A T" uniqKey="Cummings D" first="Derek A. T." last="Cummings">Derek A. T. Cummings</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21205</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Maryland 21205</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>INSERM U707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75571, cedex 12</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">cedex 12</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, Christophe" sort="Fraser, Christophe" uniqKey="Fraser C" first="Christophe" last="Fraser">Christophe Fraser</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>London W2 1PG</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Hong Kong</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Community Medicine, 5/F William M. W. Mong Block, Faculty of Medicine Building, The University of Hong Kong, 21 Sassoon Road</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>21 Sassoon Road</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Meeyai, Aronrag" sort="Meeyai, Aronrag" uniqKey="Meeyai A" first="Aronrag" last="Meeyai">Aronrag Meeyai</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>London W2 1PG</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Iamsirithaworn, Sopon" sort="Iamsirithaworn, Sopon" uniqKey="Iamsirithaworn S" first="Sopon" last="Iamsirithaworn">Sopon Iamsirithaworn</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Thaïlande</country><wicri:regionArea>Bureau of Epidemiology, Department of Diseases Control, Ministry of Public Health, Tivanonda Road, Nonthaburi 11000</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Nonthaburi 11000</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Burke, Donald S" sort="Burke, Donald S" uniqKey="Burke D" first="Donald S." last="Burke">Donald S. Burke</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21205</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Maryland 21205</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j" type="main">Nature</title><idno type="ISSN">0028-0836</idno><idno type="eISSN">1476-4679</idno><imprint><publisher>Nature Publishing Group</publisher><date when="2005-09-08">2005-09-08</date><biblScope unit="vol">437</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">7056</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="209">209</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="214">214</biblScope><date type="Copyright" when="2005">2005</date></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0028-0836</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0028-0836</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="eng">Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses are now endemic in avian populations in Southeast Asia, and human cases continue to accumulate. Although currently incapable of sustained human-to-human transmission, H5N1 represents a serious pandemic threat owing to the risk of a mutation or reassortment generating a virus with increased transmissibility. Identifying public health interventions that might be able to halt a pandemic in its earliest stages is therefore a priority. Here we use a simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs as a containment strategy. Other interventions aimed at reducing population contact rates are also examined as reinforcements to an antiviral-based containment policy. We show that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8. We predict that a stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs should be sufficient for elimination. Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li><li>Hong Kong</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>Thaïlande</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>cedex 12</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M." last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M." last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M." last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name><name sortKey="Fraser, Christophe" sort="Fraser, Christophe" uniqKey="Fraser C" first="Christophe" last="Fraser">Christophe Fraser</name><name sortKey="Meeyai, Aronrag" sort="Meeyai, Aronrag" uniqKey="Meeyai A" first="Aronrag" last="Meeyai">Aronrag Meeyai</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><noRegion><name sortKey="Cummings, Derek A T" sort="Cummings, Derek A T" uniqKey="Cummings D" first="Derek A. T." last="Cummings">Derek A. T. Cummings</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Burke, Donald S" sort="Burke, Donald S" uniqKey="Burke D" first="Donald S." last="Burke">Donald S. Burke</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name></region></country><country name="Hong Kong"><noRegion><name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name></noRegion></country><country name="Thaïlande"><noRegion><name sortKey="Iamsirithaworn, Sopon" sort="Iamsirithaworn, Sopon" uniqKey="Iamsirithaworn S" first="Sopon" last="Iamsirithaworn">Sopon Iamsirithaworn</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/SrasV1/Data/France/Analysis
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000338 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/France/Analysis/biblio.hfd -nk 000338 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= SrasV1
|flux= France
|étape= Analysis
|type= RBID
|clé= ISTEX:5A748F4ACA42DF3AF52C5A05E64F55205BD3A42B
|texte= Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
}}
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |